Preseason Rankings
Missouri Valley
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
67 Loyola Chicago 35.7%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 6 +7.9      +3.5 81 +4.5 47 63.8 313 0.0 1 0.0 1
75 Illinois St. 26.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 6 +6.8      +4.1 71 +2.7 93 71.1 121 0.0 1 0.0 1
104 Southern Illinois 15.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 8 +4.1      +1.9 112 +2.2 105 65.7 265 0.0 1 0.0 1
116 Northern Iowa 14.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +3.5      +0.2 163 +3.2 76 59.1 352 0.0 1 0.0 1
117 Bradley 11.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 +3.4      +0.5 151 +3.0 83 64.8 286 0.0 1 0.0 1
120 Valparaiso 11.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +3.2      -0.2 174 +3.4 71 72.4 91 0.0 1 0.0 1
161 Indiana St. 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 +0.3      -1.6 214 +1.9 115 72.9 82 0.0 1 0.0 1
190 Missouri St. 3.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 11 -1.3      -0.9 197 -0.4 176 64.2 301 0.0 1 0.0 1
196 Evansville 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 12 -1.9      -5.1 308 +3.1 77 64.5 295 0.0 1 0.0 1
202 Drake 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 12 -2.3      -0.7 184 -1.6 232 68.7 189 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Loyola Chicago 2.9 35.0 20.8 14.2 10.4 6.8 5.3 3.8 2.0 1.3 0.5
Illinois St. 3.3 27.1 20.0 15.1 11.6 9.0 6.5 4.4 3.3 2.1 0.9
Southern Illinois 4.4 14.4 14.7 13.5 13.2 11.9 10.5 8.0 6.1 4.9 2.7
Northern Iowa 4.7 12.1 12.8 12.5 13.0 12.6 10.9 9.2 7.8 5.7 3.5
Bradley 4.7 11.5 12.6 13.4 12.6 11.9 11.3 9.7 7.8 5.8 3.5
Valparaiso 4.8 11.3 12.1 13.4 12.1 12.3 11.2 9.3 7.9 6.5 4.0
Indiana St. 6.1 4.1 6.9 8.1 9.6 11.3 12.5 12.7 12.8 11.9 10.1
Missouri St. 6.8 2.4 3.9 5.4 7.7 9.5 11.5 13.1 15.0 16.0 15.5
Evansville 7.2 1.8 3.4 4.9 6.0 8.6 10.0 12.6 15.3 17.9 19.6
Drake 7.3 1.8 2.9 4.5 6.0 8.1 10.5 12.3 15.1 18.2 20.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Loyola Chicago 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.3 8.2 10.9 11.8 13.0 12.2 11.1 8.2 4.9 1.7
Illinois St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.9 2.8 4.3 5.8 7.9 10.3 11.0 12.5 12.1 11.5 8.7 5.7 3.1 1.2
Southern Illinois 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.1 5.8 7.6 9.5 10.7 11.1 11.5 10.5 9.0 6.7 4.5 2.8 1.4 0.3
Northern Iowa 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 2.8 5.0 6.9 8.6 10.2 11.4 11.3 10.2 9.5 7.9 6.3 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.2
Bradley 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.8 5.2 7.4 8.5 10.2 10.8 11.0 11.2 9.7 7.8 5.8 3.7 2.1 0.6 0.2
Valparaiso 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.5 5.3 7.0 8.5 10.7 11.1 10.6 10.3 9.8 7.6 5.5 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.2
Indiana St. 8 - 10 0.3 1.5 3.0 5.1 7.4 9.1 10.8 11.5 11.3 10.2 9.0 7.3 5.5 4.0 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Missouri St. 7 - 11 0.7 2.5 5.0 7.3 9.6 11.3 12.2 11.9 10.8 9.0 7.4 4.9 3.2 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
Evansville 6 - 12 1.3 3.0 6.2 8.5 11.5 11.9 12.0 11.9 9.8 7.5 5.7 4.3 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Drake 6 - 12 1.2 3.6 6.7 9.1 11.8 12.3 11.6 11.0 9.7 7.8 5.8 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Loyola Chicago 35.0% 25.9 7.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
Illinois St. 27.1% 18.8 6.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
Southern Illinois 14.4% 9.2 3.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
Northern Iowa 12.1% 7.7 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Bradley 11.5% 7.5 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso 11.3% 7.1 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 4.1% 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 2.4% 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
Evansville 1.8% 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drake 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Loyola Chicago 35.7% 26.4% 9.3% 12   0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.2 3.0 6.9 8.3 4.6 2.4 0.9 0.4 64.3 12.6%
Illinois St. 26.7% 20.6% 6.2% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.5 2.1 5.0 6.3 4.2 2.4 1.4 0.6 73.3 7.7%
Southern Illinois 15.6% 11.7% 4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.8 3.7 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.3 84.4 4.5%
Northern Iowa 14.0% 10.5% 3.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 2.3 3.2 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 86.0 3.8%
Bradley 11.6% 9.8% 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.4 2.5 1.8 1.1 0.8 88.4 2.0%
Valparaiso 11.4% 9.5% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.9 88.6 2.1%
Indiana St. 5.5% 4.4% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 94.6 1.1%
Missouri St. 3.0% 2.7% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 97.0 0.3%
Evansville 2.8% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 97.2 0.3%
Drake 2.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 97.6 0.4%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Loyola Chicago 35.7% 4.1% 33.8% 13.5% 5.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Illinois St. 26.7% 3.4% 25.2% 9.3% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Southern Illinois 15.6% 2.2% 14.7% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 14.0% 2.1% 12.8% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 11.6% 1.5% 10.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 11.4% 1.4% 10.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Indiana St. 5.5% 0.9% 5.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 3.0% 0.4% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 2.8% 0.6% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 2.4% 0.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 74.5 22.7 2.6 0.2 0.0
1st Round 99.1% 1.2 0.9 79.5 18.0 1.5 0.1
2nd Round 35.6% 0.4 64.4 32.7 2.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 13.2% 0.1 86.8 12.9 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5 0.0
Final Four 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Final Game 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2